Rabiul Karim1 and Nighat Sultana2,*
1Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Asian University of Bangladesh and 2Assistant Professor, Department of Govt. and Politics, Asian University of Bangladesh
Email of corresponding author: nighat@aub.ac.bd
Abstract: The paper constructs a conceptual framework of the causal relationships between political instability, state capacity and development risk in Bangladesh. Unlike previous researches which often focused on the individual effects of the political instability and development risk, few analyzed their interactive and interplay dynamics in the political economy framework. This article presents a model which hypothesizes distinct pathways of relationships between political instability (independent variable), state capacity (intervening mechanism) and development risk (dependent variable). The methodology of this paper is based on a qualitative method where I systematically examine literatures of state capacity, political instability and development risk in Bangladesh and connect them. This analysis shows that the political instability erodes institution and policy continuity, increases development risk. State capacity is identified as a threshold variable to buffer political shocks or transmit to structural development risk; otherwise, they would be exacerbated. Furthermore, a growth-governance paradox is suggested that although Bangladesh enjoyed remarkable growth, weakening institution could undermine future sustainability. In addition, development risk will in return bring about more political instability by undermining legitimacy of institution and reducing people’s trust. Finally, this paper claims that there is no real “development” without both “growth” and “governance”. The model presented in this paper can be a generalizable paradigm to analyze similar phenomena in other developing countries.
Keywords: Economic; Political; Governance; Bureaucratic; Bangladesh.