Areez Tariq
Independent Political Analyst
Email: [email protected]
Abstract: Despite periodic breakthroughs, India–Pakistan normalization repeatedly stalls. This paper argues the impasse is overdetermined by: (1) unresolved partitions of territory and memory, (2) a stability–instability dynamic under the nuclear shadow, (3) organizational interests—especially within Pakistan’s praetorian civil–military regime—that benefit from rivalry, (4) incompatible national narratives and domestic politics on both sides, and (5) thin, brittle interdependence. While functional cooperation (e.g., on rivers) has historically survived crises, recent shocks since 2019–25 have eroded even these guardrails. Durable improvement would require parallel progress on violence restraint, incremental de facto arrangements over Kashmir, and insulation of trade and water regimes from crisis diplomacy.
Keywords: India–Pakistan Relations; Kashmir Conflict; Partition of 1947; Security Dilemma; Stability–Instability Paradox; Cross-Border Terrorism; Trade and Economic Interdependence; Indus Waters Treaty.